Penn State is probably going to the College Football Playoff for one reason and one reason only: Because the bar has been lowered sufficiently enough to let a team coached by James Franklin in this thing.
We are?
We are … what?
We are mediocre when the lights get bright. We are Ohio State’s forever supplicant. And we, meaning the rest of us, barely even have to watch these games anymore.
If it didn’t happen Saturday, when is it ever going to happen for the Nittany Lions under Franklin?
Here’s how it could have – and maybe should have – happened. Outplayed by a decent margin and fortunate to be down just 20-13 and in position to tie or take the lead late in the fourth quarter, Penn State had first-and-goal at the 3-yard line.
Score there, and Franklin would have the biggest decision of his career: Tie or go for two?
Remarkably, he never even got that chance.
Three straight plays, Penn State handed off to Kaytron Allen. He could only inch them closer to the goal line. Then on fourth down, needing merely a yard, Franklin and offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki put quarterback Drew Allar in a position where he’d have to make a quick throw into a tight window under pressure.
He didn’t come close. Ohio State got the ball. Ohio State, for the 12th time in the last 13 years, beat Penn State.
Franklin is going to get a lot of heat for that sequence, and he deserves it. It was predictable. It was timid. It was emblematic of a decade in which the nickname “Big Game James” exists only as an ironic insult.
When is the last time Penn State won a game that really impressed you? Was it back in 2016 when he beat Ohio State for the one and only time in his career?
Since then, here’s how many top-10 teams Franklin has beaten: Two.
One was Wisconsin that same year in the Big Ten championship. The other was Utah in the Rose Bowl following the 2022 season – a game in which the Utes lost their quarterback to an injury in the third quarter.
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Franklin’s supporters will point to the fact that he is 28-6 over the last three seasons. It’s a pretty good record. And most likely, all Penn State has to do to secure its place in the College Football Playoff this season is finish the year by beating Washington, Purdue, Minnesota and Maryland.
Even Franklin should be able to manage that.
And then what?
Are we supposed to throw a party because Penn State handled a bunch of Big Ten also-rans? Are we supposed to take the Nittany Lions seriously as a national title contender when the preponderance of evidence suggests that Franklin in Year 11 can’t steal a win at home over a team of Ohio State’s quality even when all the intangible factors are pointing in Penn State’s direction?
This is tiresome. And yet, it’s what you get as a program when you give Franklin a 10-year contract that takes him through the 2031 season at a price tag of $8.5 million a year.
Even if Penn State’s administration wanted to fire him, it would cost $56.7 million.
And there’s not necessarily a great argument to be made that Penn State should fire him. It would be a risk. Things could absolutely get worse.
But at this point, everyone who has followed Penn State for the last decade knows exactly what it’s getting in these games. Unless the Nittany Lions have a clear talent advantage, they are going to lose. That is what they do. That is what the Franklin era has been all about.
Given the way the schedule fell – No Oregon, no Indiana and a Southern California team that has imploded in fourth quarters – Penn State doesn’t need to actually do much to make the 12-team playoff this year. That will be celebrated as a big accomplishment. In reality, it’s the bare minimum this team was capable of.
Franklin’s moment of truth for this season stood ready at the 3-yard line Saturday with a clear opportunity to slay the giant. Instead, Penn State fell short – a microcosm of his entire tenure.